Horns Up! | What can Rams fans expect from Matthew Stafford in 2021 and beyond?

As everyone knows by now, the Los Angeles Rams pulled off “the” stunning trade of this offseason acquiring veteran and former Pro Bowl quarterback Matthew Stafford from the Detroit Lions for their first-round draft picks in 2022 and 2023, this year’s third-round pick, and quarterback Jared Goff.

Predictably, the reviews of this trade have been polarizing as the opinions surrounding it has been all over the board. In the “Pro” camp, reviewers would have you believe Stafford is a marked improvement over Goff and now puts the Rams over the top making them a favorite to play in this year’s Super Bowl. While in the “Con” camp, they are quick to point out Stafford is 0-3 in the playoffs and routinely makes poor decisions.

So, what should Ram fans expect to see from Stafford in 2021 and beyond?

Does Size Matter?

To answer that question, it’s important to point out the differences in offensive schemes. In Detroit, the offenses were more reliant on the receivers winning their individual matchups with players like Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Eric Ebron, and TJ Hockenson previously fighting defenders for his passes.

While in Los Angeles, Sean McVay’s offensive scheme is based on attacking the different tiers of the field such as: short, medium, and long, then looks to create spacing for the receivers within those tiers through concepts incorporated into the play designs.

To better illustrate the differences in offensive schemes, one need look no further than Golladay‘s 1.8 and Jones’ 2.1 average yards of separation per route run (AYSPRR) in 2020 in comparison to Robert Woods 3.4 and Cooper Kupp’s 3.2 yards. Golladay’s and Jones’ AYSPRR as a unit placed them dead last in the NFL while Woods & Kupp’s placed them both inside the league’s top 10%.

The impact of now playing in an offensive scheme where his receivers will be more open than he’s ever regularly seen receivers be open… not because they’re more talented skill-wise, but because McVay’s offense does a better job of scheming them open… will be that Stafford won’t have to be as perfect with his throws as he needed to be in Detroit as he’ll be able to enjoy a greater margin of error in Los Angeles.

In Detroit, one of the complaints about Stafford was, he would occasionally make bad decisions but when his receivers weren’t really open, he had inches where he could place the ball so only they had a chance to catch it. In Los Angeles, his throwing windows are going to be larger, an additional 18 inches (on average), so he won’t have to be so perfect with his ball placement.  And with bigger windows to throw to, many of those “poor decisions” concerns won’t come up as often.

As with any new offensive system comes new terminology, new plays, new timings, new reads, new philosophies, new traits, new understandings, new everything’s, and that’s something Stafford is just going to have to learn and deal with in 2021. Of course, having McVay in his ear barking instructions up until the 15-second coach-quarterback communication signal cutoff will be a help.

What Does Aaron Say?

The closest situational comparison I can find to help establish Stafford’s immediate and long-term expectations is with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay as both play in or will soon play in similar schemes and both are generally regarded as elite quarterback talents throughout the league.

In 2019, former Rams Offensive Coordinator Matt LaFleur was hired on as the new Head Coach in Green Bay where he immediately took with him and installed much of McVay’s offense. That first season, Rodgers was less than receptive to it preferring what he was already familiar with which caused some friction between himself and LaFleur.

In 2020, as Rodgers was more familiar with and became more comfortable in LaFleur’s offense, he stopped resisting the scheme change and instead chose to embrace it. In doing so, his on-field production really improved and as a result, Rodgers captured his third league MVP award.

So… What Can Fans Expect?

Coming into this 2021 season, one could argue that Stafford has more weapons with Woods, Kupp, Tyler Higbee, Van Jefferson, Cam Akers, and Darryl Henderson at his disposal so he should be able to put up better numbers than Rodgers did in 2019. However, an equally strong argument can be made that after Cam Akers’ second-half breakout last year, the Rams will look to rely more on the young running back’s fresh legs this upcoming season which will effectively depress some of Stafford’s potential passing production.

Overall, expectations for Matthew Stafford going into his first season in Sean McVay’s offense should be set somewhere between what Rodgers did in 2019 and what he was able to accomplish in 2020 which would be an approximate 12.06% – 28.43% upgrade over Goff’s 2020 production in only Stafford’s first season.

After Matthew Stafford completes his first year in the new offense, like Rodgers, he’ll be more familiar with the scheme, growing more comfortable in it, and will be in a position to better understand the system nuances entering the 2022 season where similar to Rodgers, a noticeable improvement can and should be expected. I won’t go as far as to claim Stafford will show the same overall 35.36% improvement as Rodgers did from year-1 to year-2, but I won’t dismiss a similar bump in production as out of the question either.

Using Rodgers same year-2 improvement gains as a “Best Case” predictor to get a feel for what fans might be able to expect from Stafford in 2022, might reflect something along the lines of:

Under a best-case scenario, as Matthew Stafford enters his second season in Sean McVay’s offense, I can absolutely see 4300-4500 yards as possible having already done so 5 out of the 9 seasons he’s started all 16 games, doing so in an inferior offensive scheme, and with lesser offensive talent around him. As long as the Rams can protect him and keep him upright, 4300-4500 yards seems a very realistic expectation.

While I can’t imagine Stafford (or any quarterback) completing 75.3% of his passes, I can absolutely see a scenario where he completes or gets close to completing 70% of his passes especially when considering, and as explained above, that Stafford will now benefit by playing in an offensive system where his receivers will be running around more open than he’s ever seen before. Jared Goff was able to complete 67% of his passes in this same offense in 2020 and that was with defenses squeezing the box because he didn’t keep them honest by occasionally throwing the ball deep.  With Stafford much more capable of beating defenses over the top, defenses will be reluctant to do so thereby ensuring the short and intermediate levels remain less cluttered which will clearly benefit Stafford from a completion percentage perspective.

With regards to touchdowns, I think it reasonable for fans to expect Stafford to surpass Rodgers’ 2019 total of 26 in his first season… and maybe by as much as 10, so an 84.62% improvement on passing touchdowns from year-1 to year-2 would be unrealistic. However, throwing for between 35–45 touchdowns in his second season would seem very reasonable and within the realm of realistic possible outcomes.

So, what do you think?  What are your expectations for Matthew Stafford in 2021 and 2022?  Sound off below and let me hear what you have to say.

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