30 September 2021; 8:20 p.m. ET
Paul Brown Stadium; Cincinnati, OH
Week 4 kicks off in Cincinnati between the last two No. 1 picks in the NFL Draft in Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence respectively. The NFL could not have picked a better matchup than this one as the final game in the month of September.
Burrow and Lawrence begin what should be a long rivalry in the league for years to come and fortunately, this rivalry has a history dating back to the biggest stage in college sports… the National Championship. Both signal-callers squared off in the 2020 National Championship that ended in a dominant 42-25 route behind the then Heisman trophy winner, LSU’s Joe Burrow. Now the rivalry makes its way to the NFL, kicking off with a primetime matchup.
Burrow may be playing against Lawrence off the field, but it’s Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer who he will have his attention on. Meyer and Burrow spent three years together at Ohio State, a time where Burrow barely saw the field while Meyer was the Buckeyes’ head coach. He eventually transferred to LSU, won the Heisman Trophy, and was drafted first overall by the Bengals.
Although the duo spent time together, it wasn’t time that football fans got to witness on the field. But Meyer says he thinks so highly of Burrow that when he was preparing to draft Lawrence first overall in this year’s draft, he contacted Burrow to get tips about how to help a first overall pick adjust to the NFL.
“I just wanted to talk to a guy who was in that position in recent history,” Meyer said, via the Associated Press. “We talked several times throughout the spring, just about what I could do — what we could do — to help our rookie quarterback.”
Burrow says his former college coach was rather demanding of him despite being a backup to Dwayne Haskins during his time at Ohio State.
“He [Meyer] was really hard on me, and it made me a better player and better person,” Burrow said. “What he does is, when he gets a new player, he tries to put them in a very intense situation to see how they respond, to see if he can trust that player. He really did that to me early in my career. I really wasn’t sure why it was happening. But then as I got older and more mature, I really understood why he was doing it, and it did make me better.”
That’s exactly what’s happening to Lawrence. The rookie quarterback has struggled greatly through his first three starts with a record of 0-3 and 2+ INT in each game. It’s a bit alarming as the Clemson product went 34-2 as a starter for the Tigers and had 2+ INT in only 3 of 36 college starts. Meanwhile, Burrow has adjusted well to the league in his second season, improving in every quarterback category.
Burrow’s 2020 Season (10 Games): 65.3 comp pct, 6.7 yds/att, 1.3 pass TD/game, 89.8 passer rtg
Burrow’s 2021 Season (3 Games): 70.7 comp pct, 8.5 yds/att, 2.3 pass TD/game, 105.4 passer rtg
Although it’s only 30% of the games Burrow played in 2020, the Bengals QB has rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase to thank. The QB/WR duo goes back to their LSU days and they picked up right where they left off in the 2020 national championship.
Chase is the first rookie in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016) to have a deep TD (20+ air yds) in 3 straight games. Thursday night should certainly see a fourth against a defense that has allowed 28.3 PPG to opposing offenses. Plenty of points to go around for Cincinnati’s offense.
Meanwhile, Lawrence will have to worry about the Bengals’ fierce pass rush that has 3+ sacks in each game this season, which is already one more than last season! (2 such games in 2020). Here’s how the two quarterbacks fair against the pass rush.
Lawrence: 45.8 pressure rate, 30.0 comp pct, 3.5 yds/att, 1 TD, 2 INT, 18.8 passer rtg
Burrow: 35.0 pressure rate, 72.2 comp pct, 9.6 yds/att, 3 TD, 1 INT, 118.8 passer rtg
Burrow has also tossed 3 TDs to only one interception against the blitz compared to Lawrence’s 1 TD and two interceptions. Don’t be surprised if head coach Zac Taylor is a bit more aggressive than usual with his defensive unit, especially against a rookie quarterback, the perfect prey to take advantage of. Jacksonville has lost 18 straight matchups dating back to last season and Thursday night should extend that streak to 19. The Bengals should handle the Jaguars with ease at home, although the score may be closer than expected.
Score: 31-23, Bengals Win
