Methodology
The following statistics have been run through an extremely trustworthy programming system know as my brain. No other national media platform has access to this incredibly accurate supercomputer, which means these win probability statistics are the most accurate in the country. I’m sure you all care so much about what I think, so here are the next 13 games for the Buffalo Bills.
Las Vegas Raider: 76% win probability
The Raiders have been a confusing franchise ever since the hiring of Jon Gruden. They have been stuck in between a dumpster fire and playoff material. For the most part, the Raiders struggle to win against good teams, and Gruden has gone 11-21 since his return to coaching. Very rarely do you see Derek Carr go out there on Monday Night Football and beat a future Hall-of-Famer such as Drew Brees like he did this past week. Instead, Josh Jacobs will determine if the Raiders have a fighting chance at winning this game. Even then, it’s unlike the Raiders to punch in another upset so soon after their first of the season. It’s more likely the Raiders get hot toward the playoff race at the end of the season.
Kansas City Chiefs: 21% win probability
After almost giving one up to the Los Angeles Chargers during Justin Herbert’s debut game, the Chiefs made sure the entire United States remembered who are the reigning Super Bowl champs after whooping the Baltimore Ravens and former league MVP on Monday Night Football. The Bills defense is one of the most talented in the NFL, and the Bills offense has completely turned the corner, but in my eyes, there are too still many issues on both sides of the ball for the Bills to win this game. The run defense has continued to struggle, the pass defense has been breaking down in the second half, and the offensive line is still playing musical chairs. Of course, there is nothing I’d like more than a Thursday Night victory over the best team in football, but with no fans in Bills Stadium and a healthy Chiefs roster, it should not be something to count on.
New York Jets: 96% win probability
The New Jersey Jets are absolutely the worst team in the NFL. At least last year, when the Dolphins were considered the worst in the league, there was at least some disagreement after the Dolphins showed some life. This year, if you ask anyone who watches football, the Jets are the overwhelming consensus for the bottom of the barrel. Adam Gase might be fired by this point, and honestly, that may be the only shot the Jets truly have at putting up a fight in this game. A new head coach, maybe one that shows emotion and a desire to win football games, is the only defibrillator for this dying franchise.
New England Patriots: 67% win probability
This is still a good football team without Brady, but it definitely is not the same. Cam Newton has proven to the league that he is not only healthy, but capable of leading a successful offense. The ability to transition in and out of the run and pass game week-to-week is dangerous for opposing teams trying to scout the Patriots tendencies. It’s uncertain, but I expect a heavy dose of Cam and the committee backfield running the ball against Buffalo. The Bills have the edge in this one due to the explosiveness of their offense (something I never thought I would be saying).
Seattle Seahawks: 30% win probability
The Seattle offense is in contention with the Packers and Chiefs as the best in football. However, MVP-candidate Russel Wilson must be tired of competing against the opposing team and the Seattle defense. The Bills have a better chance than they would have had last year, since Buffalo can actually take part in a shootout, but the Pete Caroll run game is too strong for this defensive front to stop right now. Unless something changes defensively, the Bills will have trouble this game. McBeane has completely turned this franchise around, but the Bills are still one step behind teams such as Seattle, Kansas City, Green Bay, Baltimore, and New Orleans (which I find to be the five most talented teams in the league).
Arizona Cardinals: 81% win probability
I was originally on the Arizona hype train, but like most of you, I have got off at the nearest station. The Cardinals do have a bright future ahead of them, but it turns out the 49ers and Vikings squads were just not the same as they were last year. It’s more likely that the Cardinals are an above-average team that will fight for a 6th or 7th wildcard spot late in the season. If the Bills defense can contain Kyler Murray and the Bills offense is healthy, there should be no reason for Buffalo to lose this game.
Los Angeles Chargers: 83% win probability
The Chargers proved that they could be feisty after giving the Chiefs a run for their money in Week 2. However, that may have been due to the last-second decision to start Justin Herbert after a team doctor punctured former-Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor’s lung with a pain injection. The Chiefs defense had game-planned for Taylor all week, and suddenly were forced to defend against someone with no NFL tape. By the next week, the Chargers seemed to be figured out. Justin Herbert, by the way, seems to have the same NFL trajectory as a certain quarterback from Wyoming. Herbert came from out West, was overshadowed by other first-round quarterbacks, didn’t get the start until the second week of his rookie season, and will eventually replace Tyrod Taylor (not to mention the fact that Herbert also plays like Allen in terms of his arm and mobility). I genuinely wish the best for the franchise and the rookie QB.
San Francisco 49ers: 71% win probability
By this time Goroppolo should be back under center and most of their weapons should be off the injury report. The defense, however, lost Nick Bosa for the season. After trading Deforest Buckner in the offseason, the stellar defense that made this team NFC Conference Champions last season seems to have some holes up front. The 49ers just don’t scream Superbowl anymore, even after beating the New Jersey Jets and Giants with their practice squad. With the injury report and schedule clouding my judgment, I very much could be wrong, but we will see through the next couple weeks just what team the Bills will get Week 13.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 56% win probability
The Bills were able to pull off a primetime victory over the Steelers last year, and this is generally the same team with the addition of Ben Roethlisberger. Now granted, that completely changes the offense and takes this team from wildcard contenders to championship contenders, but it does not mean the Bills will have as much trouble against Pittsburgh as they will against Kansas City and Seattle. Don’t forget, the Bills offense is kind of on fire this season, and there is nothing besides injury that should slow them down. This game in particular seems like a tossup. I could easily see the Bills dropping this game after going on a three-game win streak Weeks 11-13. Still, I’m giving Buffalo a slight edge in the showdown.
Denver Broncos: 91% win probability
Although Drew Locke will most likely be under center again by the time the Bills take the field alongside the Broncos, this team will still be quarterback-needy. Locke proved last year that he is incapable of playing well against this Bills secondary, and he doesn’t seem like the type to develop into a franchise quarterback anytime soon. With a new Buffalo offense, this game will not be nearly as close as it was last year. With the Bills getting an easy opponent in Week 15, this is the game most likely to mathematically secure Buffalo a playoff birth. Hopefully, fans will be able to celebrate together in some manner by then.
New England Patriots: 49% win probability
The win probability of this second matchup is hard because the Bills are simply a better team than New England this season. It’s a fact that national media outlets are going to have to get used to. However, this game may mean much more for the Patriots in terms of the wildcard or division race, and Belichick will have his men ready to compete for sure. See the previous matchup between the Patriots and Bills for more info on the logistics of the two teams. Generally, I think the Bills will split the series with the Patriots, and so this game is a loss if the Bills won earlier in the season, and it’s a win if the Patriots pulled it off Week 8.
Miami Dolphins: 89% win probability
The Bills starters might have taken a seat on the bench by now, which is why the win probability is a little less than expected. However, give the Miami Dolphins some credit. They are not dumpste-fire as many media personalities assumed out of the gate. The national media is right, however, that Tua should get on the field sooner than later, but by the last week of the season, it would really be a shocker if he wasn’t under center. That will be an interesting tone-setter for the rest of his career, since (if things go well) he will be seeing this Bills team for many years to come. If the Bills need this win for playoff contention or playoff seeding, they will get it. If the starters are on the bench, expect a loss similar to the one suffered against the New York Jets in Week 17 of last year.
Predictions
If the Buffalo Bills win all of their games listed as 70% or higher (low-end prediction) the Bills would be 10-6.
If the Buffalo Bills win all of their games listed as 50% or higher (median predicition) the Bills would be 12-4.
If the Buffalo Bills win all of their games listed as 30% or higher (high-end prediciton) the Bills would be 14-2.
The eyeball test at the beginning of the season suggested that the Bills are a 10 or 11 win team, but these (super accurate) probability ratings suggest that Buffalo fans might be in store for much more!
