On top of that, the team averaged 340.8 total YPG and a +11 turnover differential from November-January compared to 301.1 total YPG and a -16 turnover differential in the previous two months. This week they get a favorable matchup against a Houston team that has lost 7 straight games by an average of 19.7 PPG including 6 of 8 games this season by a loss of 10+ points (most in NFL). Miami comes into this game with a 7-game losing streak as well, however, they have shown brighter spots than the Texans have, even with QB Tyrod Taylor making his return to the field.

Score: 29-23, Dolphins Win.

Bills @ Jaguars

The game lock of the week comes by no surprise in a game that features the Bills. Buffalo’s defense has tallied up more interceptions (11) than touchdowns allowed (5) to opposing quarterbacks. No.1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence is coming off an ugly road loss to the Seahawks that have a bottom-5 defensive unit, so best believe the rookie doesn’t stand a chance this week.

Bills’ Josh Allen should have a field day against a Jaguars defense with their own Josh Allen (pass-rusher) as Buffalo has averaged 31.7 PPG this season (most in NFL) as Jacksonville has allowed 29.0 PPG this season (4th-most in NFL). It’s worth noting that each of the Bills’ last 12 wins has come by 10+ points… a dominant road win could be in the works.

Score: 31-16, Bills Win.

Falcons @ Saints

All it takes is one signature win to get a team rolling and that’s exactly what the Saints have following an upset win over the Buccaneers. Not only are they the defending champs, but being in the same division makes the win all the sweeter. This week the Falcons head to New Orleans in what marks their second consecutive division content. Every time these two NFC south squads clash it tends to be a one-sided affair in favor of the Saints.

Matt Ryan is 9-16 vs Saints in his career (the only NFC South opponent he has a losing record against) including Atlanta’s 3-game losing streak against New Orleans (fewer than 20 points and 350 total yards in each game). On top of that, the Saints have racked up 21 sacks against the Falcons since 2019. Head coach Sean Payton may be operating with QB Trevor Siemian for the foreseeable future, so leave it to the defense to power this team to victory.

Score: 27-18, Saints Win.

Patriots @ Panthers

This game has the ability to be a sneaky good matchup as it will likely be a defensive battle all four quarters. Here’s a look at what each of the opposing offenses will have to face on Sunday.

Both squads have been inconsistent, but their defenses have shown signs of being one of the top-tier units in the league. The Panthers have allowed 14 points or fewer in each of their 4 wins this season, offensively though, the team has averaged a mere 19.2 PPG since Week 4. I expect a low scoring affair to go in favor of Carolina, especially with CB Stephon Gilmore healthy against his former Patriot squad.

Score: 21-17, Panthers Win.

Raiders @ Giants

This may be my sleeper pick of the week with the Giants potentially sneaking one out. The Raiders have looked a bit more consistent lately, however, their defense is going to be the big issue in this matchup. The Giants have a 47.8 red zone TD pct this season (2nd-lowest in NFL), however, the Raiders are allowing an 83.3 red zone TD pct (T-highest in NFL). That gives Daniel Jones and the offense some breathing room which could be deadly with WR Kenny Golladay back in the lineup.

Meanwhile the Raiders are 0-4 after their bye week since 2017 (lost by 14+ points in each game) and this past week has been harder than most following the news about Henry ruggs III. The last thing Las Vegas needs this season is more locker room distraction and this week could prove to be bothersome for the team. Besides, New York looked great down the stretch against the reigning AFC champs on Monday night. The team is good enough to have a fighting chance in this contest.

Score: 26-20, Giants Win.

Browns @ Bengals

It’s the battle of Ohio featuring the Browns and Bengals which marks the first matchup since 2014 with both teams entering .500 or better. Cincinnati is coming off an ugly loss to the Jets as the Browns are coming off a loss of their own against the Steelers. Clevland has had a busy week with releasing WR Odell Beckham Jr. which simply doesn’t help any offense, especially one that is struggling. Since week 5, Browns QB Baker Mayfield: 0-3 record, 68.1 comp pct, 254.7 pass YPG, 4 TD, 1 INT, 103.9 passer rating. On top of that Cleveland’s receiving group has averaged 8.4 receptions/game this season which ranks second to last on the year. The run game is where this game will be determined for the Browns as Nick Chubb has averaged 93.4 rush YPG and has 4 TD in 5 career games vs Bengals.

On the contrary though, Cincinnati can match that rushing attack with one of their own in Joe Mixon who has averaged 121.7 rush YPG and has 3 rush TD in 3 career home games vs Browns. Pair that up with an unstoppable aerial attack in Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase and the Bengals should see a nice bounce back game against a faulty Browns secondary.

Score: 30-26, Bengals Win.

Vikings @ Ravens

Minnesota has looked ugly in their last few matchups and this week they head to Baltimore against Lamar Jackson and a well-rested Ravens flock coming off a bye week. Although the Ravens are allowing 23.4 PPG this season, the Vikings have scored fewer than 20 points in 3 of their last 4 contests. Expect Kirk Cousins to do the heavy lifting as Baltimore’s defense has yet to allow 60+ rush yards to an individual RB this season. It’s worth noting that the Ravens have won 11 straight games vs NFC opponents, so this should look like a cakewalk.

Score: 30-22, Ravens Win.